The Australia-China travel boom is officially back. According to Flight Centre Corporate, flights between the two countries are expected to exceed pre-pandemic capacity in 2025, reaching 104 per cent of 2019 levels in January. But what does this mean for airfares?
The milestone comes after years of recovery on Aussie-Chinese routes, and Flight Centre Corporate says it could signal a potential turning point in the cost of flying.
“As we know, greater capacity means better airfares for passengers, and as more capacity into China is welcomed, we’re seeing fares start to soften,” Flight Centre Corporate Global COO Melissa Elf said.
“An economy fare between China and Australia is about 14 per cent cheaper over the last six months [June to November 2024], compared to the same period in the previous year.
“We can expect this trend to continue with the introduction of extensive new capacity over the coming month or so.”
Among a raft of new and resumed routes between Australia and China are the return of non-stop Perth-Guangzhou flights and the launch of the first-ever direct link to Beijing Daxing Airport from Sydney and Melbourne, both operated by China Southern Airlines.
“The limited capacity between Australia and China has been one of the key reasons that international airfares have been so high for so long, but this influx of additional flights is the final frontier to lower airfares,” Ms Elf said.
“With direct flights between Perth and China resuming for the first time in more than five years, Australia’s first connection to the new Beijing Daxing Airport, and a new carrier entering Australia, capacity between Australia and China will skyrocket.”
In November 2024, capacity to China was at 79 per cent of pre-Covid levels. But the Aussie boost shows just how quickly things can change.
“Capacity can be influenced by seasonal travel trends, so we’ll see the connection to China fluctuate between 90-104 per cent of pre-pandemic capacity over the course of the year, but it’s a huge increase on what we’ve seen over the last several years,” Elf said.
“We’re seeing the greatest levels of capacity out of Melbourne, which is going to be consistently above 110 per cent of what it was before the pandemic, throughout 2025.
“But Perth will see the greatest benefits, as it jumps from around 10 per cent capacity this month (November 2024), to up to 90 per cent by February 2025.”
Elf added that Flight Centre Corporate had seen a 50-plus per cent rise in China bookings in 2024 year to date, and the FCTG brand expects that to grow even more.
“Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou are the top three most heavily booked destinations in China for our corporate travellers, so to see these three cities welcome more traffic, both in-bound and out-bound, really speaks to the value of the relationship – both for tourism and business,” she remarked.
This week, the inaugural Juneyao Air service from Shanghai touched down in Australia, making it the record ninth Chinese mainland carrier at Sydney Airport and propelling seat capacity from Sydney Airport to mainland China to 101 per cent of 2019 levels.
Just days before that, China Southern resumed direct flights between Guangzhou and Adelaide, marking its first service on the route since early 2020.
In November, China also announced it would double the length of visa-free stays for Australians, in a massive boost to travel to the country.
