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It’s official: Flights are fuller than they’ve ever been… but will airfares fall?

If you thought flights felt a little more packed in 2024, it’s because they were. Last year, the world’s airlines filled more seats than ever, with the industry’s average load factor reaching a record 83.5 per cent, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

If you thought flights felt a little more packed in 2024, it’s because they were. Last year, the world’s airlines filled more seats than ever, with the industry’s average load factor reaching a record 83.5 per cent, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

That’s equal to five out of every six seats on every plane, which is great news for airlines and their efforts to up efficiency – less great for those hoping to have a spare seat next to them.

The 2024 milestone reflects a surge in air travel demand, with total airline traffic surpassing pre-pandemic levels and also reaching record highs. 

The total full-year traffic – measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) – jumped 10.4 per cent from 2023, marking a 3.8 per cent increase over 2019. Flight capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), also grew by 8.7 per cent.

FCTG flight plane passengers
Flight demand, capacity and loads all rose to record levels in 2024.

Looking at international air travel alone, the average load factor was a record 83.2 per cent, while traffic rose 13.6 per cent year-on-year, which was 0.5 per cent higher than the record 2019 mark. 

On the domestic front, flight traffic increased 5.7 per cent from 2023, which was also an all-time high. 

December 2024 capped off the record-breaking year with a global load factor of 84 per cent – an unprecedented figure for December.

“2024 made it absolutely clear that people want to travel. With 10.4 per cent demand growth, travel reached record numbers domestically and internationally,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said.

“Airlines met that strong demand with record efficiency. On average, 83.5 per cent of all seats on offer were filled – a new record high, partially attributable to the supply chain constraints that limited capacity growth.

AFTA flight Air travel
All regions saw yearly traffic growth for flights in 2024.

Regionally, Asia-Pacific airlines led the international recovery, with a 26 per cent jump in traffic compared to 2023. 

Elsewhere, European carriers saw a 9.7 per cent increase, while North American airlines reported a 6.8 per cent rise.

Meanwhile, domestic markets soared to new highs, with China driving demand, up 12.3 per cent. 

Japan also posted stable growth, while India maintained the highest domestic load factor at 86.4 per cent. 

Despite the record year, Walsh expects air travel growth to return to more normal levels in 2025.

“Looking to 2025, there is every indication that demand for travel will continue to grow, albeit at a moderated pace of 8 per cent that is more aligned with historical averages,” he remarked. 

So how will this continued demand impact airfares? 

IATA predicts that the average airfare in 2025, including extras like checked baggage, will be around US$380 (about AU$610), which is a 1.8 per cent decrease compared to last year. 

While that’s a modest y-o-y decrease, in real terms, it represents a significant 44 per cent drop compared to 2014, highlighting the industry’s commitment to offering value. 

Safer skies

Plane safety rules according to CASA
Flight safety is always the highest priority for IATA.

The IATA boss also underlined the group’s commitment to safety – especially in light of the American Airlines crash in Washington DC.

“The desire to partake in the freedom that flying makes possible brings some challenges into sharp focus,” he stated. 

“First, the tragic accident in Washington last night reminds us that safety needs our continuous efforts. 

“Our thoughts are with all those affected. We will never cease our work to make aviation ever safer.”

Additionally, despite the challenges, Walsh flagged the industry’s “firm commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050”.

“While airlines invested record amounts in purchases of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in 2024, less than 0.5 per cent of fuel needs were meet with SAF,” he said.

“SAF is in short supply and costs must come down. Governments could fortify their national energy security and unblock this problem by prioritising renewable fuel production from which SAF is derived.

“In addition to securing energy supplies and increasing the SAF supply, diverting a fraction of the subsidies given for fossil fuel extraction to support renewable energy capacity would also boost prosperity through economic expansion and job creation.”