If 2025 felt like a blur of researching, booking, changing and reissuing international trips, new data suggests that feeling is spot on. Not that anyone’s complaining… our memories aren’t that short.
Fresh Tourism Research Australia (TRA) data confirms outbound travel soared to new heights in 2025 – and while the news mightn’t come as a shock (Karryon tracked this trajectory throughout the year) it should reassure those in the industry that travel remains a priority for Aussies, despite challenges like cost-of-living pressures and geopolitical events.
TRA’s new Tourism Forecasts for Australia: 2025 to 2030 report estimates Aussie resident returns to climb by 8% in 2025, reaching 12.6 million trips overseas. That figure, a record, builds on the 11.6 million international trips taken in 2024, underscoring Australians’ enduring appetite for travel abroad.
The report attributes this growth to strong demand for leisure travel and visits to friends and relatives, which together accounted for 87% of outbound trips throughout 2025. This aligns with Australians’ willingness to spend on travel and experiences, which TRA says remained resilient this year.
The ongoing rise of affordable short-haul destinations across Asia and the Pacific was also a key factor, supported by more airline capacity and competitive airfares on these routes in particular.
With Australians taking “more overseas trips than ever before”, the fastest-growing destinations for Australian resident trips in 2025 were Japan, China, Vietnam and Thailand; however, hotspots including Indonesia and Pacific Island nations also continued to lure more Aussies. The rise in resident travel to Asia-Pacific destinations came largely at the expense of US-bound tourism, which dropped significantly in 2025.
Worrying imbalance?
While Australians are showing a strong preference for international trips, the surge in outbound travel is having flow-on effects.
According to the report, Aussie demand for aviation capacity may be constraining growth in inbound international arrivals, as outbound travellers occupy seats that could otherwise support local tourism.
This imbalance is reflected in the widening gap between outbound and inbound travel. Net outbound travel (the gap between outbound and inbound) is forecast to reach 3.7 million trips in 2025, marking one of the largest differentials on record – and TRA expects this gap to remain elevated through the end of the decade, stabilising from 2028 onwards.
However, the report suggests this pressure could also be temporary, with strong outbound demand likely to encourage airlines to add capacity on popular routes over time. With that, increased capacity could support both outbound growth and future inbound recovery, particularly across Asia.
2026 outlook
Despite the good times, TRA expects outbound travel to moderate after 2025, with forecast growth easing to around 5% in 2026 before tapering further. Even so, Australian resident trips overseas are still projected to reach a whopping 14.9 million by 2030.
Domestic travel, meanwhile, remains part of the mix but continues to trail international demand.
According to the report, Australians are balancing budgets by choosing shorter domestic holidays and more day trips, but prioritising international holidays when spending allows.
The study estimates domestic overnight trips to increase by 0.3% to 113.2 million in 2025, following a slight decline in 2024 (down 0.3%).
Domestic visitor spend is set to rise by 4.2% to $153.9 billion, driven by a sharp jump in day trip spending, while overnight spend is expected to dip slightly as travellers take shorter stays.
Looking ahead, domestic visitor spend is forecast to climb to $187.4 billion by 2030, growing at an average 4% a year.
KARRYON UNPACKS: For Aussie advisors, this confirms what 2025 already felt like on the ground: clients are travelling overseas often and with confidence. Short-haul Asia and Japan remain hot, aviation capacity matters more than ever and outbound demand isn’t slowing just yet. The opportunity lies in guiding value-driven travellers through busy skies and crowded destinations. Expect international travel to continue to dominate conversations in 2026.
As 2025 draws to a close, Karryon founder Matt Leedham reflects on a chaotic and correctional year for travel, shaped by AI hype, global disruption, and human resilience, before turning to what truly matters for the industry in 2026. Check the wrap out here.
