The latest Australian tourism forecast from Tourism Research Australia show inbound tourism continuing to climb with Asia leading the next wave of international visitor economy growth.
Australia’s visitor economy is set to build on a strong rebound in 2025 with Tourism Research Australia (TRA) projecting strong and steady international tourism growth through to 2030, driven by increasing demand for Australian experiences.
TRA’s latest outlook forecasts 8.8 million short-term international arrivals to Australia in 2025, up from 8.6 million in 2024, mostly from the UK and mainland China.
The 2025–2030 Australian tourism forecast predicts a 24 per cent increase in overseas arrivals to reach 10.9 million by 2030.
China is expected to be the fastest-growing market over the next five years, followed by strong growth from Hong Kong, India, Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia. New Zealand will continue as Australia’s largest single source market through to 2030.
Short-term arrivals for all major travel purposes, including holidays, visiting friends and relatives, and business, are forecast to rise steadily. However, international holidaymakers are expected to outpace business travellers as leisure demand continues to strengthen.
The forecast increase supports the sustainable growth of Australia’s visitor economy, helping to drive employment, regional development and long-term industry resilience.
Australian Tourism Export Council (ATEC) Managing Director Peter Shelley said the results reflect solid growth in international visitation and increasingly confident global demand for Australian experiences.
“Visitors are staying longer and spending more, confirming that Australia’s offering continues to resonate strongly in key markets,” he said.
“The task for 2026 is to keep Australia visible in market and ensure the industry has the capability and tools to keep pace with global competition and capture opportunities in expanding markets.
“With the right investment in market presence and industry capability, Australia is well-positioned to turn this steady recovery into durable long-term growth and to secure its share of the rising global visitor economy.”
Read the full report here.
KARRYON UNPACKS: Australia’s tourism recovery has shifted from rebound to renewal with Asia leading the next phase of growth. Sustained momentum, diversification and strategic investment will be key to capturing global demand for Australian experiences through 2030.
