Flight Centre Travel Group (FCTG) projects robust growth for FY25, setting a profit target between $365 million and $405 million, despite first-quarter fluctuations driven by falling airfare prices, particularly in Australia and Asia.
Addressing shareholders at the company’s AGM on Thursday, FCTG CEO Graham ‘Skroo’ Turner outlined a positive outlook for FY25 despite acknowledging some early-year hurdles.
Turner highlighted FCTG’s strong foundations, built on a diversified business model spanning leisure and corporate travel, multiple brands and global reach. This diversity, he argued, has been key to the company’s consistent growth record.
“This diversity is a point of difference for our company and a key contributor to our proven growth record, which has seen us achieve 37 years of record TTV in our 42-year history,” Turner said.
The company’s corporate business, FCM, emerged as the largest contributor to TTV. Its “Grow to Win” strategy, focused on customer retention and securing new accounts, fuelled a phenomenal recovery. By the end of FY24, FCM reached 135% of its pre-COVID size, exceeding industry estimates and achieved without major acquisitions.
Leisure transformed
According to Turner, Flight Centre’s leisure division has evolved to serve value-conscious customers with a stronger online presence and more diverse product offerings, including luxury and independent travel options.
“Our luxury, specialist and independent businesses now capture almost half of our leisure TTV, compared to about one-third five years ago,” Skroo said.
“Our cruise sales in particular are growing strongly – up 31% in Australia last year – and we’re now looking to fast-track our growth globally in this buoyant sector.”
The flagship Flight Centre brand has maintained its market share, he added.
Future-proofing
Flight Centre remains committed to investing in future growth. According to Turner, key areas include:
- Productive Operations: A major initiative expected to deliver substantial productivity gains and customer benefits within the next 18 months.
- Expanding addressable markets: New products and offerings are creating fresh revenue streams for both leisure and corporate segments.
- Digital enhancements: Investments in digital technology aim to improve customer experience, product access (particularly online) and overall productivity.
- Cruise sector growth: FCTG is accelerating its focus on the booming cruise market through strategic investments and product development.
While the first quarter of FY25 saw “patchy” trading compared to FY24, October brought encouraging signs. Preliminary results point to a solid rebound in both top and bottom lines.
This recovery follows a dip in August and September, attributed partly to cyclical challenges and partly to business closures towards the end of FY24.
Blessing in disguise?
Airfare deflation, a key factor impacting TTV growth, is viewed positively by FCTG.
“We view cheaper fares as very positive and they are starting to stimulate sales, as evidenced by a 15% increase in international airfares sold in Australia during the first quarter – a growth rate that was maintained in October,” the FCTG boss explained.
“There is also opportunity to regain some of the lost ground in relation to first quarter super over-rides by delivering stronger leisure and corporate TTV growth in the months ahead.”
Business and leisure wins
Corporate transaction volumes grew 3% in the first quarter, driven by account wins despite a leaner workforce, indicating significant productivity gains.
FCM secured contracts with an estimated annual spend of $350 million during the four months to 31 October, exceeding the same period last year.
Meanwhile, cost-conscious leisure travellers are driving strong growth in value-added packages, like those offered by FCTG’s Ignite business.
Eyeing record profit
Flight Centre Travel Group is targeting an underlying PBT between $365 million and $405 million for FY25.
“The mid-point of $385 million represents 20% growth on FY24 and, if achieved, will be a record, eclipsing the $384.7million underlying FY18 result,” Turner said.
This outlook aligns with market consensus and reflects the broader travel industry’s expected return to its normal growth trajectory.
But while a 2% underlying PBT margin remains a medium-term goal, achieving it this year is unlikely.
FY25 outlook
Turner said the group is “well placed to grow during FY25”.
“While we have experienced some cyclical challenges early in the year, our fundamentals have not changed and we have set our sights on achieving healthy profit growth,” he added.
Skroo also expects travel demand to climb, particularly among families and budget-sensitive travellers.
“The broader travel industry is now expected to return to its normal growth trajectory, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasting 3.8% compound annual growth in passenger numbers globally between 2023 and 2043. The Asia-Pacific region is set to grow more rapidly – at a 5.3% compound annual growth rate,” he said.
“Through our established and emerging brands, we are well placed to capture more than our share of this growing market.”
In October, FCTG took a 20% hit to its share price after releasing Q1 2024 financial results that missed market expectations.
