Geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel and Iran erupted into near full-scale conflict at the end of February, throwing millions of travel plans into chaos as Middle Eastern airspace shut down and Gulf carriers were forced to dramatically scale back operations through March. But how did the conflict impact outbound travel from Australia overall?
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) latest monthly snapshot of departures and arrivals, released today, Aussies continued to travel in record numbers in March 2026, with short-term resident returns (for trips less than a year) totalling 910,450 – an increase of 8.4 per cent year-on-year.
The number of recorded trips was also more then 20 per cent (20.8%) higher than the pre-COVID level in March 2019.
Total arrivals for the month were 1,826,980, a y-o-y increase of 8.2%, although these also include non-leisure and long-term trip returns.
While the Middle East conflict undoubtedly impacted Gulf, UK and Europe-bound travel, especially for those who were booked, or who’d intended to fly with Gulf carriers, short-term trips to other regions appear to have been unaffected, according to the official ABS data.
In fact, travel to Australia’s favourite destinations skyrocketed year-over-year.
Top spots
Leading growth among Aussies’ top spots was China, which saw a massive 31 per cent rise (to 56,790 trips), followed by Vietnam (+26%, to 58,110) and Singapore (+21%, 32,890).
Elsewhere, the Philippines (+15%), New Zealand (+13%) and Japan (+12%) all witnessed double-digit rises, while India also saw healthy growth (+5%). Among the top 10 most-visited nations, only Thailand and the US experienced declines.
Overall, New Zealand was still our number one destination, with 138,040 short-term returns (equal to 15.2% of all resident returns), followed by Indonesia and Japan – the same top three from March 2025.
New South Wales recorded the highest number of resident returns from short-term trips (up 9.3%, to 282,610), edging Victoria (+7.2%, 242,570) and Queensland (+9.8%, 186,380).
Tasmania (+22.3%), the Northern Territory (16.1%) and South Australia (12.8%) saw the highest growth in trips, likely due to air capacity increases.
Short-term resident returns – top 10 destination countries
| Country of Stay | Mar 2019 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
| New Zealand | 134,780 | 124,440 | 122,350 | (13%) 138,040 |
| Indonesia | 91,890 | 110,190 | 116,660 | (4.6%) 121,980 |
| Japan | 34,270 | 62,590 | 79,650 | (12%) 89,230 |
| Vietnam | 29,290 | 39,560 | 46,150 | (26%) 58,110 |
| China(b) | 41,330 | 35,130 | 43,290 | (31%)56,790 |
| India | 37,860 | 48,100 | 53,450 | (5%) 56,090 |
| USA | 61,410 | 50,650 | 55,480 | (-1.6%) 54,600 |
| Thailand | 41,660 | 42,580 | 53,890 | 53,340 |
| Singapore | 34,560 | 28,870 | 27,280 | (21%) 32,890 |
| Philippines | 21,020 | 20,670 | 23,360 | (15%) 26,920 |
KARRYON UNPACKS: March proved Australians still prioritise travel, even during geopolitical turmoil. But with the conflict ongoing, April (and future) figures may better reveal whether confidence, bookings and Europe demand, in particular, softened longer-term.
