The New Zealand government has signalled it may block unvaccinated Australians from travelling to Aotearoa under the trans-Tasman bubble when it reopens.
Last month, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern popped the trans-Tasman bubble for eight weeks until September 18, with a decision on reopening to come early next month.
Given ongoing lockdowns and rising case numbers in NSW and VIC along with Kiwi fears around Delta, COVID-19 Minister Chris Hipkins said a bubble remodelling beckoned.
“It is unlikely that the trans-Tasman safe travel zone will simply reopen in exactly the same form as it was before all of this happened,” he said.
“Vaccines by that point will be more widely available on both sides of the Tasman.
“It may be that vaccinations become a prerequisite for non (NZ) citizen travel.”
Mr Hipkins said legal challenges were likely to prevent the no vax, no-fly policy from applying to Kiwis leaving and returning to New Zealand.
The bubble change is foreshadowed in declassified documents commissioned by Ms Ardern’s government on NZ’s reopening to the world.
On Wednesday, the government released three pieces of cabinet advice prepared by the expert group driving their COVID-19 response.
NZ hopes to vaccinate every consenting adult Kiwi this year, but the advice suggests the rollout could be less effective should a more damaging variant emerge.
“It is not inconceivable that, by the end of the year, there could be an established variant that is significantly resistant to the vaccine,” the advice states.
“No one knows what the outcome of this pandemic will be in say three-to-five years’ time.”
The papers – authored by University of Otago epidemiologist David Skegg and her authoritative figures – does not suggest setting a target on vaccination rates before opening borders, arguing authorities should aim to “as close to 100 per cent as possible”.
The advice provided in June outlines less restrictive quarantine arrangements – known in NZ as “MIQ” – which could include home isolation with enhanced testing, proposing to trial it amongst fully-vaccinated Kiwi travellers.
Those plans are thrown out the window in the advice given in July – showing the evolving nature of the virus and the policy response.
“In the seven weeks since … the global situation has deteriorated significantly,” Dr Skegg writes.
“It is sobering to see what apparently resulted from the infection of a single person with (the Delta) variant in Sydney.
“Even with current settings, New Zealand is liable to experience an outbreak similar to that in NSW over the coming months.
“We could not recommend rolling out this scheme until as many New Zealanders as possible have been vaccinated,” he said.
With regard to Kiwis arriving in Australia as part of the trans-Tasman agreement, the Australian federal government is yet to announce details on any updated passenger requirements for when the bubble resumes.