As airlines and travellers assess the implications of the peace deal between Iran and the US, attention is turning to how quickly air routes, capacity and pricing may stabilise after months of disruption. Complex Travel Group founder and self-confessed airfare nerd Mark Trim comments on what may come next as conditions across the region begin to settle.
During the disruption in the Middle East, a smart move for many travellers was to secure a backup booking on an alternative carrier and route. It worked as an insurance policy in case their preferred flight was cancelled and they were left scrambling for options.
With a peace deal now in place and the aviation landscape shifting again, those same travellers are facing a new question: what do I do with the booking I no longer need?
The good news is that many of those backup fares are easier to cancel than travellers realise.
Why some expensive fares may be easier to cancel
Because Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific restricted lower booking classes during the disruption, only top-tier inventory remained available. These carriers do not use a branded fare model in the same way as Etihad or Qatar Airways, where restrictions are built into each price point. Instead, refundability is tied to the booking class itself.
Top-tier inventory is naturally refundable, typically with a minor or nil penalty. That means the backup fares travellers paid a premium for during the disruption are, in many cases, the easiest fares to walk away from.
There is also no minimum notice requirement for cancellation. Unlike hotel and cruise bookings, which typically impose non-refundable conditions at 30, 14 or seven days before travel, these fares carry no equivalent provision.
Travellers could hold the backup booking until a few days before departure, confirm their original flight is operating as planned, and then cancel the backup with no additional penalty for waiting.
Some travellers may want to wait until a signing ceremony or a longer period of stability. But there is no benefit in waiting indefinitely. If the original travel plans are confirmed and the backup fare is refundable, our advice is to cancel the backup and recover those funds, less any cancellation costs.
Holding both bookings serves little purpose once regional stability is restored.
Check before you cancel
The important first step is to check the specific conditions of your backup booking before taking any action. Not every fare will be refundable. Conditions vary by airline, booking class and when the ticket was issued.
If you are unsure, seek advice from your travel agent before cancelling. The right approach will differ depending on what you are holding.
Don’t expect a flood of cheap fares
The next question is what happens if a significant number of travellers reach the same conclusion at the same time.
Unfortunately for those hoping for a cheap flight, a flood of last-minute cancellations would not, in my view, translate into a surge of cheap cash fares. Airlines that have spent months maximising fares have no commercial incentive to suddenly discount at the final hour.
We may see rates from Asian carriers, which have been almost 50 per cent above their normal levels, come back down towards the levels of the Middle Eastern airlines. But they are unlikely to undercut them.
The more plausible outcome is that released seats flow into the frequent-flyer and upgrade pool, including reward redemptions, bid upgrades and airport upgrades, rather than appearing as bargain fares.
Even for travellers who prefer to stick to a routing via Asia, if these rates do come down from their recent highs because of a flood of cancelled backup flights, there could be an opportunity to cancel and rebook onto the same or an equivalent carrier for those who paid significantly inflated prices.
Could airlines close the gap?
The longer-term question is whether this episode prompts structural change.
If last-minute cancellations put a meaningful dent in projected revenue for Asian carriers, and if bookings swing back towards Middle Eastern airlines as a result, we would expect the industry to respond.
The fix is not complicated. Introducing minimum notice requirements as part of a branded fare or fare-family review would close this gap. A fare purchased more than 30 days out could become non-refundable within 14 or seven days of departure. It is the same logic hotels and cruise lines apply as a matter of course.
The airlines have left a significant gap in their terms and conditions. It would not take much to address it.
The question is whether the revenue impact needs to be felt before they do.
About the author:
With more than 15 years of experience in the travel industry, Mark Trim has built a deep understanding of airfare pricing, market trends and premium travel products. Complex Travel Group now provides complex airfare and travel solutions for travellers through brands including Flat Beds, RoundAbout Travel, Flat Beds Tour + Cruise, QFlyer and Y Premium.
KARRYON UNPACKS: For travel advisors, the next client conversation may be less about crisis management and more about unwinding backup plans. Trim says some of the most expensive contingency fares booked during the disruption may now be among the easiest to cancel.
