It’s difficult to paint a clear picture of US tourism right now. For all the talk of an unfavourable exchange rate, the impact of the tariff wars, and anti-American sentiment, during the first four months of 2025, global travel to the US yo-yoed year-on-year, with the most recent government data showing a rise of 8 per cent in arrivals for April.
Although this data excludes the States’ largest markets Canada and Mexico, the latest figures that include those markets – for January and February 2025 – show a similar pattern of ups and downs, despite widespread reports of one-way, downwards traffic from Canada.
Throw a recent survey of US tourism operators and destinations into the mix, in which one in two respondents admitted to a decline in present and future business, and the picture becomes even blurrier.
Australian travel to the US has been equally unpredictable. According to the International Trade Administration’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) data, Aussie arrivals were down in February and March but up in January and April. Go figure.
Region rallying
One region, however, that feels confident in its tourism outlook, especially from Australia, is the US South, which includes the Virginias, Carolinas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana and Georgia, among other states.
Despite a rise in anti-American, or perhaps more accurately, anti-Trump sentiment influencing some travel trends, interest in the US South (comprising entirely of Republican “red states”) among Aussie travellers is holding firm.
In fact, official data actually shows a rise in travel intent for the region, with positive sentiment driving demand for Southern destinations known for their culture, cuisine and warm, laid-back hospitality.
Citing NTTO data, Travel South USA – the official regional destination marketing organisation of the Southern USA – says that while Australian arrivals to the US overall were down 7% in the first three months of the year, between January and March, 7,855 Australians listed a Travel South state as their first intended US destination. Significantly, this shows a healthy 22% year-on-year increase from 6,452 visitors.
“While we don’t have access to the data that shows the number of Australians who visited the south and whether that paints the same positive picture as the first intended address, we see this intel as a positive signal,” Travel South USA President and CEO Liz Bittner tells Karryon.
That means it’s business as usual for the region’s tourism operators and destinations.
“Our region works closely with the travel trade and media on campaigns to provide promotional partnerships with booking channels for Australian and New Zealanders who have a keen interest in the food, music and culture of the American South,” Bittner states.
“From Mardi Gras season to experiencing Bourbon and Whiskey Trails, from the shared love of all genres of Where Music Was Born to the iconic Road Trips such as Route 66, we will continue the efforts we have developed down under and look to welcome visitors this year and for decades to come.”
“Not deterred”
Memphis Tourism Director – Australia and New Zealand, Chris Ingram, is similarly optimistic.
“From our AU/NZ region, the South is highly aspirational and especially so amongst what is primarily our main traveller – typically, an empty nester over the age of 55 with a medium to high disposal household income,” he tells Karryon.
“I don’t buy the argument that the US dollar is too high…it’s always been high and it still doesn’t deter us from visiting the US.
“However, the feedback I keep hearing in the AU/NZ market is that the major US gateways have all become too expensive, and therefore we’re seeing stronger interest than ever in getting beyond the gateways.”
Specifically, Ingram flags Aussies and Kiwis travelling in groups on coach tours.
“What I have observed over the years in the industry is that when things get tight in our region, travellers turn to a full itinerary type tour product – like Chris Watson Travel or Globus or Trafalgar – with all inclusions and significant costs included,” he says.
“The fixed costs enable these travellers to purchase the vacation at home in AU/NZ dollars and budget accordingly for any incidentals while travelling.
“They are not going to be deterred – they are still going to travel regardless.”
Ingram also points to the increase in airline capacity as a gauge of the region’s health.
“What’s interesting as well is that airlines continue to add capacity, including United Airlines opening up a new gateway in Adelaide, taking their Australia-New Zealand gateway cities to six,” he explains.
“There’s also new air services from Qantas, Delta Air Lines and Fiji Airways, which surely is a clear show of commitment to the market, with increased capacity translating to more availability and, importantly, potentially more competitive fares.”
Southern charm
Chris Watson Travel Managing Director Chris Watson says he hasn’t seen any “major changes” to US-bound business overall. But he is particularly confident in the US South and Southwest markets.
“We have seen a few different destinations [grow] for us, but we’ve definitely seen the South pick up a lot – places that are not left field, but are not as well known, [like] Arizona, Colorado, a bit of the Midwest… Tennessee is always a great seller for us,” he tells Karryon.
Notably, Watson says he’s seen a rise in people “getting off the beaten track to see different things”.
“And that’s what we’re seeing over there… people who have either been to mainstream [destinations], wanting to go to different places, or people that haven’t been mainstream, [but want] that real, authentic experience”. In places like Memphis, Mississippi and Georgia, he adds.
So that’s how it looks today. But given the current US administration’s unpredictability, a lot could change tomorrow.
